Today will be a historic day in the three states of Imo, Kogi and Bayelsa, as a total number of 5.41 million eligible voters head to the polling units to cast their ballots to elect new governors for the three states.
In the past few weeks, palpable tension has spread throughout the three states and even beyond, as the people prepare to choose new helmsmen for the states, reports Saturday Sun.
The three states, at the best of times have security challenges, and now the candidates and their parties have taken desperation to a notch higher because they either want to continue in office or have their choice person as successor. As such, violence has become the order of the day.
Off-season elections have always recorded voter apathy, but analysts have stated that this particular one might be worse, considering the skirmishes among candidates during campaigns, which are signs of things to expect in states that already have security concerns. This would discourage many who would have wanted to go to their voting centres. More so, many people are yet to forget the double standard that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), played during the presidential and governorship elections of February and March this year.
Even though the electoral umpire has said that all the glitches experienced during the general elections had been taken care of, and has expressed its readiness to conduct a free, fair and credible governorship election in those three states, however, most of the voters might take their assurance with a pinch of salt. Some might have even made up their minds not to go and punish themselves queuing under the sun to vote when the electoral umpire has already decided the winner.
Already, the campaigns were characterised by armed violence like previous elections. The reasons for these repeated challenges include weak governance, ineffectiveness of security forces, poverty, unemployment, abuse of power, and the proliferation of arms.
Against the fear of security breach, the Inspector General of Police, Olukayode Egbetokun, has assured the nation that he has enough power for the elections in the three states.
To forestall the possible breakdown of law and order, the IGP has ordered the deployment of heavy security equipment, which included Armoured Personnel Carriers (APC), drones, water cannon and 220 police patrol vehicles.
Even in Kogi, the state police command said, it would deploy 40,000 officers.
In Imo State, INEC has cleared 17 candidates for the election. However, three of them seem to be more visible than the others – the incumbent governor, Hope Uzodimma of the All Progressives Congress (APC); Athan Nneji Achonu of the Labour Party (LP) and Samuel Anyanwu of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Uzodimma has been the governor since 2020 after the Supreme Court nullified the election of Emeka Ihedioha of the PDP and declared him the winner. He was number four in the election results announced by INEC. He is the current chairman of the Progressives Governors Forum. He intends to prove to Nigerians that the Imo people are behind him. He would also want to shed the toga of a governor imposed on the state by the Supreme Court.
Senator Achonu, the LP candidate served briefly in the National Assembly as a senator before the courts sacked him. He has built a name for himself by embracing his disability.
Senator Anyanwu was the national secretary of the PDP before he emerged the candidate of the party.
Many factors would determine the direction of the pendulum at the end of the day. The high level of insecurity in the state may be the strongest point in determining who wins the election, as the exercise many voters may stay indoors.
Insecurity has been a major challenge in the South East Zone for some time now, and Imo State is one of the worst affected. Deaths have occurred from protests, armed clashes, abductions, mob violence, and activities of secessionist groups, riots, electoral violence, and other causes.
The INEC had about two weeks ago complained that they were yet to get about 6,000 ad hoc staff for the election in the state. This is mainly the corollary of the security challenge that the state is witnessing. Unlike in the past where people rushed to get INEC work during election because of the monetary reward, but this time around because of the fear of the unknown gunmen many are afraid to take the job, which they considered as risky.
In the last one week, two security breaches were recorded. The National President of the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC), Ajero was attacked and injured. The NLC is accusing the security agents in the state in connivance with the aides of the governor and threatened to go strike if certain conditions were not met, including the removal of the state Commissioner of Police, Mohammed Bala. The police authorities heeded to this by transferring the CP.
In Kogi State, as residents file out today to elect their governor from the 18 candidates, including one female, of different political parties, what will guide in their choice may not necessarily be the manifestoes or the campaign promises of the candidates or their capacities, experiences, merits, but their ethnic backgrounds.
Since this political dispensation, ethnic sentiments have been a determinant factor in the direction the pendulum swing for governorship election. The state, like others in the country has three senatorial zones – Kogi West, comprising majorly the Okun people, where the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Sen. Dino Melaye comes from; the Kogi Central, the Ebira people, where the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Ahmed Usman Ododo, a former Auditor General for Local Government of the state comes from, and Kogi East, where the candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Murtala Yakubu Ajaka, hails from. Kogi East has the highest number of people in the state.
Equity, justice and fair play are not given consideration in order for all the zones to have a taste of the governorship of the state, as it is done in some states. That is the more reason Kogi governorship election is among the most volatile in the country, and this one is seen as a battle no one is ready to lose.
Like every election in Nigeria, there are contenders and pretenders, who want to enrich their curriculum vitae by adding a “former governorship candidate.” Among the leading contenders jostling to succeed Governor Bello on January 26, 2024, are Ododo Usman Ahmed (APC), Dino Melaye of the PDP and Murtala Yakubu Ajaka (SDP).
This is the first time since the creation of the state that the three major ethnic groups – Igala, Ebira and Okun will engage in a battle for supremacy. In the past, it used to be two major tribes facing each other and using the third tribe as bargaining chip. Based on voting strengths, none of these three ethnic nationalities can singlehandedly make one of their own the governor. So, the ethnic minorities like Bassa Nge, Bassa Kwomu, Nupe, Ogori-Magongo and non-indigenes may be important in deciding who wins today’s election.
It is against this background that political pundits pointed out that Kogi is an interesting state to watch, as it is sitting on a political tinder box, and when added with the high level of insecurity in the state, it may conflagrate.
On June 3, this year, there was a clash of convoys between the candidate of SDP, Murtala Ajaka and Governor Bello. Speaking of the convoy attack, Governor Bello said: “Let it be the first and last time an antelope will cross the lion’s way. Next time, there will be no warning”.
In 2019, the entire nation cringed over the barbaric killing of a woman, Salome Abuh, a staunch member of the PDP, who was burnt alive in her house shortly after the announcement of the results of the governorship election on November 18, 2019. Recent developments show that 2023 may not be different from the violence of previous election years. Not long, suspected political thugs invaded and vandalised the SDP campaign office in Lokoja, the state capital. After accusations and counter-claims, the hoodlums returned to the same campaign office and set it ablaze. There have been reports of attack on APC secretariat in Igalamela-Odolu local government. The signs are ominous and if allowed to fester, it will surely affect the election with the possibility of low turnout of voters.
In Bayelsa, 16 candidates, including two females, will slug it out today. The incumbent governor, Duoye Diri of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); a former governor and the immediate past Minister of State for Petroleum, Timipre Sylva, of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Labour Party Candidate, Eradin Udemgmofa, are the front-liners.
A twist was added to the political equation when on October 10, 2023, the Federal High Court in Abuja, disqualified Sylva from participating in the state governorship election, and the INEC deleted his name from the list of governorship candidates for the election. However, the high court judgment was reversed by the Court of Appeal on October 31, which prompted his name to be reinstated.
The oil rich state has security issues at other times and during elections. Historically, armed thugs usually stoke violence at every election cycle in Nembe, Brass, Ekeremor, and Southern Ijaw areas of the state. The activities of militants in the South-South region put the state on a prevalent security threat, especially in hotspots around the swamps.
During the last general elections, insecurity forced INEC to move voting in 141 polling units in the state to the following day after the voting processes were interrupted by thugs. The National Youth Service Corps members handling those polling units said they were afraid of conducting elections at the affected polling units.
Against today’s election, the Bayelsa Traditional Rulers Council, recently alerted that they have gathered intelligence about a planned politically orchestrated violence in different areas of the state. “We do not think that law enforcement should allow political actors to violate all the laws of the land and walk away free in the name of politics. We have seen acts of violence being meted out to Bayelsa people in other election seasons in this state and the perpetrators walked away free. We hope it does not repeat in this season,” the monarchs warned in a statement.
On Sept. 18, Sylva, the candidate of the APC, Sylva and incumbent governor Diri of the PDP accused each other of sponsoring violence ahead of the polls. The police have also been accused of being complicit in the recent conflict that claimed lives at Bassambiri community in Bayelsa.
However, a group of women under the umbrella of Bayelsa Women Arise Organisation has promised to stop any violent moves by politicians to upturn the will of the people in the state’s governorship election.
By and large, the security agencies have a huge role to play in ensuring that the election is peaceful by shunning partisanship and playing by the rule. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) must use this opportunity to redeem its image, arising from the February / March general elections early in the year, where it was said to have performed abysmally low.
Many people in Bayelsa, Imo and Kogi states have maintained that INEC should step up its game and ensure the processes are free, fair and credible. They also urged the security agencies to do their bit and ensure that the elections in the three states are free, fair and credible.
