The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has revised its global traffic and profit forecasts for 2025, citing “headwinds” affecting the global economy, with industry leaders warning of the risk of increased tariffs impacting the sector.
Today, the association estimated fewer than five billion air journeys would take place this year, compared with the previously forecast 5.22 billion, reports Channels TV.
“The first half of 2025 has brought significant uncertainties to global markets,” IATA’s Director General, Willie Walsh, told its annual general meeting in New Delhi, as reported by AFP.
But he added, “Considering the headwinds, it’s a strong result that demonstrates the resilience that airlines have worked hard to fortify.”
Cumulative airline profits will reach $36 billion this year, $600 million less than expected, IATA said.
Commercial aviation revenues are expected to remain below the $1 trillion forecast in the previous December projections, with IATA now reporting $979 billion.
Walsh, addressing IATA delegates, called for the aviation sector to be spared from increased tariffs — though he did not name US President Donald Trump, who unveiled sweeping duties on trading partners in April.
While assessing profits, Walsh warned that “perspective is critical” to put industry-wide figures into context, saying that per passenger, it was still a narrow margin.
“It’s still a thin buffer and any new tax, increase in airport or navigation charge, demand shock or costly regulation will quickly put the industry’s resilience to the test,” he said.
“Policymakers who rely on airlines as the core of a value chain that employs 86.5 million people and supports 3.9 per cent of global economic activity must keep this clearly in focus,” he added.
The organisation also expects 69 million tonnes of cargo to be transported by air this year, down from the 72.5 million previously expected.
A barrel of Brent North Sea crude, the international benchmark, stands below $65 as a result of Trump’s tariffs, his call to “drill baby drill,” and especially a decision by OPEC+ to hike crude output quotas.
This represents an immediate boon for airlines.
Jet fuel is expected to average $86 a barrel in 2025, well below the $99 average in 2024, “accounting for 25.8 per cent of all operating costs,” IATA added.
The 2025 total fuel bill of $236 billion is $25 billion lower than in 2024.
Among the “risks” weighing on commercial aviation, IATA identified conflicts such as the war in Ukraine, as well as “trade tensions”.
It added, “Tariffs and prolonged trade wars dampen demand for air cargo and potentially travel.
“Additionally, the uncertainty over how the Trump administration’s trade policies will evolve could hold back critical business decisions that drive economic activity, and with it the demand for air cargo and business travel.”
