Nigeria’s quest to expand its economy to $1 trillion in the coming years is drawing scepticism, with experts warning that the target will remain elusive without bold structural reforms and a clear strategy to strengthen trade relations.
The warning comes amid renewed concerns over the country’s economic trajectory, with fresh complications arising from the United States’ tariff impositions, reports The Guardian.
The new trade barrier poses a significant threat to Nigeria’s global competitiveness at a time when the federal government is banking on export-driven growth to realise its economic aspirations.
Speaking at the 2025 Vanguard Economic Discourse in Lagos, Group Chief Economist of Afreximbank, Dr Yemi Kale, cautioned that the current economic structure cannot support the rapid expansion needed to achieve the $1 trillion target within the timeframe set by the Tinubu administration.
According to him, the idea, while visionary, will require more than political promises or statistical recalibrations.
“To reach a $1 trillion economy by the end of this administration’s term, Nigeria would require annual growth rates over 40 per cent, a pace that is virtually unprecedented and, under current conditions, simply unachievable,” Kale stated.
He added that even within a longer six-to-eight-year horizon, consistent double-digit real GDP growth would be essential, requiring deep and transformative economic reforms.
Kale identified Nigeria’s long-standing weaknesses in all four macroeconomic pillars- real, fiscal, monetary and external as major barriers to sustained growth.
He cited the agricultural sector as a critical example, noting that the country’s persistently low maize yields of just 1.5 tons per hectare, compared to a global average of six to eight tonnes.
Combined with climate vulnerabilities and post-harvest losses estimated at 40 per cent, these challenges render agriculture a weak foundation for broad-based economic expansion.
“Growth for its own sake is insufficient. What Nigeria needs is quality growth that is inclusive, equitable, job-creating, and resilience-building.” President of the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), Dele Kelvin Oye, also raised concerns about the nation’s trade and business competitiveness.
Oye described the U.S. tariff as a ‘severe blow’ to Nigerian exporters and a direct threat to enterprise growth and job creation, particularly in the non-oil sector.
“This tariff directly jeopardises enterprise growth and could precipitate job losses, especially among our struggling non-oil export players,” he warned.
Oye, who is also the Chairman of the Organised Private Sector of Nigeria (OPSN), criticised the unpredictable policy environment, urging the federal government to engage more with private sector stakeholders before rolling out far-reaching economic measures.
“We appeal to the government to listen to us more before making policy changes. Sudden decisions, whether on taxation or trade, disrupt investment flows and weaken investor confidence. Nigeria’s economic revival depends heavily on stability, dialogue, and accountability.”
He stressed the need to address foundational economic weaknesses, especially in the areas of investments in infrastructure, rule of law, and education.
“You cannot build a thriving economy without good roads, enforcement of contracts, and strong human capital. Education, infrastructure, law and order are the foundations of a competitive economy,” he said.
With inflation hitting 23.18 per cent in February 2025 and youth unemployment now exceeding 53 per cent, Oye warned that the cost-of-living crisis could worsen if Nigeria does not act swiftly to diversify its trade and economic base.
He called on the country to reduce its overdependence on Western trade partners and explore new markets across Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
“Instead of relying heavily on America, we should build new trade partnerships. There are untapped opportunities in emerging markets that we must explore. We are serial optimists. Every challenge presents an opportunity. But we must act decisively and strategically to avoid repeating past policy missteps.”
Other experts at the event underscored the need for reform, especially around governance and institutional quality.
Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), Tayo Aduloju, emphasised that Nigeria’s growth potential will remain dormant without strengthening its political, economic, and social institutions.
“We must build very strong institutions. The poor quality of leadership and weak institutions are at the heart of our underperformance as a nation,” he said.
Also speaking, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, stated that Nigeria’s trade policy remains heavily focused on revenue collection, to the detriment of business growth and investor attraction.
“Our tariff regime is too high and hostile to enterprise development. It’s a trade policy built around revenue, not competitiveness,” he said. As Nigeria presses forward with its $1 trillion GDP vision, the consensus among experts is clear: without urgent structural reforms, policy coherence, and improved trade strategy, the target may remain aspirational rather than achievable.
