The New Year, 2024, is here. It is literally virgin and fresh. Despite the enormity of challenges many Nigerians faced in 2023, the people characteristically ushered in 2024 with so much hope and faith that better days are ahead of them.
Those given to New Year resolutions are already putting their expectations together and listing their possible dos and don’ts in 2024, reports Daily Sun.
For many, the culture which has become a perennial ritual prepares them psychologically for every new year. To this category of people, a new year is always an opportunity, a fresh beginning, new chapter and another chance to get it right.
In the political sphere, many critical observers would naturally make various projections. One of such is the political gladiators that will shape 2024.
So, the question is –who are those whose activities would largely influence the politics of the year in view?
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu
There is hardly any reason belabouring why President Tinubu’s actions would shape 2024. For obvious reasons, as the number one citizen in the country, whatever he does or does not do will largely influence the entire nation. After his not too endearing first six months in office from May 29, 2023 to December 31, 2023, a lot is expected from him this year. The majority of Nigerians agree that the first six months of the current administration brought hardship to the people even though most of what the citizens suffered were a fallout of policy directions already initiated by his predecessor, President Muhammadu Buhari’s government.
For instance, Tinubu declared at his inauguration on May 29, 2023 that “fuel subsidy is gone” but the date for the cessation of subsidy had already been set by the Buhari administration. Tinubu however, ended the payment abruptly one month before it was due.
The expectation is that Tinubu’s first full 12 months calendar year as president would be time for him to prove to Nigerians that he is not just in charge, but that he is also in control. It will be the time to prove to Nigerians and the world in general that his 20 years preparation to be president of Nigeria was not driven by an ambition to just occupy the highest office in the country but a mission to serve the nation and make a difference.
In this regard, Nigerians across the geopolitical zones, represented by Afenifere, Middle Belt Forum (MBF), Arewa Youths Consultative Forum (AYCF), among others have already highlighted areas of need they expect the president to address as the new year begins. The areas include the economy, insecurity and the ethnic strife and sectarian divisions tearing the country apart.
The inflation and high cost of living, Christmas Day attacks in Bokkos and Barkin-Ladi Local Government Areas of Plateau State, which left at least 100 persons dead are some of the issues Tinubu must deal with decisively to prove that he is on top of things.
The videos of Tinubu, as opposition leader tackling President Goodluck Jonathan on his perceived poor handling of the insecurity that then pervaded the country, that have been circulating on-line in recent times are reminders to the president that he made a claim that he could do it better.
Tinubu must therefore walk his talk; it is not enough to just issue orders to the security agencies to fish out the penetrators.
On the economy, the president must rise to the challenge and together with the Central Bank and his economic team save the country from economic doom.
Atiku Abubakar
The 2023 general elections are done and settled, even as the past election could be the last election that would have former Vice President Atiku Abubakar as an active participant.
Atiku would be 81 in 2027 when the next general elections are due and it is unlikely that he would contest the election.
Many critical observers expect that 2024 would be a year for the former vice president to play the role of an elder and a unifier in the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The party has tentatively scheduled a mini convention for February 2024, as Atiku supporters, who are predominantly the founding members of the party and the new generation leaders of the PDP battle for supremacy and control.
Atiku is expected to lead the older generation of the party to find trustworthy young party members to entrust the future of the PDP to. But the future of the PDP depends on how the members resolve the internal wrangling in the party.
In this regard, Atiku must prove his avowed claims to be a democrat and unifier and in 2024, help birth a new PDP that would play the expected role of an opposition party as they wait for the next round of elections.
Peter Obi
Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in 2023 is seen in many quarters as the official face of the opposition even though his party came third in the 2023 presidential election.
In 2024, the major task before the two-term former governor of Anambra State would be to sustain the vibrancy he brought to the Labour Party when he emerged as its 2023 presidential candidate, rally together more supporters and sympathisers alike, as well as recruit more members ahead of the off-season governorship elections in Edo and Ondo states in September 2024.
Obi must keep in touch with governors and legislators elected on the platform of the Labour Party and ensure that they remain true to the ideals and manifesto of the party because the future of the Labour Party depends on its elected members remaining loyal to the platform that got them elected.
Labour Party was formed in 2002 but went under in 2007 after its first elected governor, Dr Olusegun Mimiko, served out his two terms as governor of Ondo State and left the party.
Obi, as the highest-ranking member of the party must ensure that elected representatives remain committed to the party by executing people-oriented projects that would distinguish the Labour Party as a choice party ahead of the next general election in 2027.
He is also expected to remain steadfast in his constructive criticism of government policies while suggesting better alternatives.
Nyesom Wike
Nyesome Ezewo Wike, immediate past governor of Rivers State is a strong member of the PDP serving in the All Progressives Congress (APC) government as minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
In 2024, Wike would likely define whether his loyalty is with the APC or with the PDP.
Wike has been seen on viral on-line video singing and dancing to the tune “Asiwaju on your mandate we shall stand.”
Recent events in Rivers State during his face-off with Gov Siminalayi Fubara and the defection of 27 members of the State’s House of Assembly loyal to him from the PDP to the APC infers that he may be PDP in name and APC in spirit.
The spokesman of the House of Assembly, Enemi Alabo George, said on a recent television interview that the members that defected to the APC are not returning to the PDP. He further said, “we voted for Asiwaju during the Presidential election, so there is nothing wrong with our supporting his administration”.
This statement by Wike’s supporters carries a lot of weight.
Gov. Siminalayi Fubara
The ‘peace accord’ signed by Governor Siminalayi Fubara following President Bola Tinubu’s intervention in the face-off with his predecessor, Nyesom Wike, minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) may have clipped Fubara’s wings to act as he would have as governor.
Fubara, who served as accountant general of Rivers State under the Wike administration was hand-picked by Wike to become governor. Wike also nominated a sizeable number of the cabinet members.
Following a prolonged disagreement between the two, Tinubu brokered a peace deal signed in December.
Part of the deal is that:
1. All matters instituted in the courts by the Governor of Rivers State, Fubara and his team, concerning the political crisis in Rivers State, shall be withdrawn immediately; All impeachment proceedings initiated against the Governor of Rivers State by the Rivers State House of Assembly should be dropped immediately; The leadership of the Rivers State House of Assembly, as led by the Rt. Hon. Martin Amaewhule shall be recognised alongside the 27 members who resigned from the PDP; The remunerations and benefits of all members of the Rivers State House of Assembly and their staff must be reinstated immediately, and the governor of Rivers State shall henceforth not interfere with the full funding of the Rivers State House of Assembly; the House of Assembly shall choose where they want to sit and conduct their legislative business without interference and hindrance from the Executive arm of the government; the governor shall re-present the state budget to a properly constituted Rivers State House of Assembly; the names of all commissioners in the Executive Council who resigned their appointments because of the political crisis in the state should be resubmitted to the House of Assembly for approval; and, there should not be a caretaker committee for the local governments in Rivers State. The dissolution of the Local Government administration is null and void and shall not be recognised.”
Although Fubara’s supporters say the deal favours Wike and puts the governor at a disadvantage, Fubara has vowed to implement both the spirit and letter of the agreement in the interest of peace as “no price is too much to pay for peace.”
Godwin Obaseki
Governor of Edo State, Godwin Obaseki would be completing his second term in office later in 2024. Obaseki is currently in a running battle with his deputy, Philip Shuaibu over the deputy’s governorship ambition, which Obaseki does not support. This 2024, Obaseki would be working towards consolidating his grip on the state structure of the PDP to ensure that his preferred candidate emerges the governorship candidate of the PDP and goes ahead to win the governorship election in September.
Femi Gbajabiamila
As Chief of Staff (CoS) to the president, Gbajabiamila, the long serving former federal legislator will coordinate the ministers and their ministries to ensure that everyone is on the same page towards achieving the Renewed Hope agenda of Bola Tinubu’s administration.
Many argue that considering the age of the president, Gbajabiamila remains his Man Friday who would literally show direction for Tinubu’s administration.
Musa Kwankwaso
The future politics of the leader of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and his political son, Abba Kabiru Yusuf will be largely determined by the outcome of the Supreme Court judgment on the Kano governorship election. If they should lose, both of them will be highly incapacitated to play any further role at the national sub- national levels of Nigeria politics in 2024. This is because a great deal of Kwankwaso’s politics in the coming years will naturally draw from the goodwill, funding support and numerical impetus of Kano State, where he is reportedly governing by proxy. In the absence of this vast support base from the state, Kwankwaso politics will certainly be dried up or sub- optimal, no matter how hard he tries.
However, should the Supreme Court affirm their victory, Kwankwaso will come alive by next year. With the influence and backing of Kano State, he would attempt to widen his current sphere of influence across the North- where if he was to be judged side by side with the performances of Peter Obi in the East or Atiku in the North- he, Kwankwaso did not do well. Not to forget that Kwankwaso emerged a distant third in many Northern states and in some cases, forth in the last Presidential elections. Analysts believe that all things being equal, Kwankwaso will seek an alliance, an understanding or a coalition with other political parties as he cannot get to his destination driving with his party alone. In addition, Kwankwaso is likely to continue to attempt to win the trust and friendship of President Tinubu, despite the fact that they are of different parties in an attempt to be relevant in the years ahead. And finally, by next year, many predicted that Kwankwaso will eventually clash with the Vice President, Kashim Shettima over the control of the politics of the North as both of them have their eyes on controlling the region’s politics.
Shettima and Zulum
Babgana Umara Zulum, the Governor of Borno State, is a gentleman. And he has demonstrated this by his uncommon loyalty to his principal, Kashim Shettima. There is no reason to believe that he will depart from this conduct any time soon. Chances are, therefore, that he will be less obvious at the national level but more focused on the administration of his state. In other words, his politics will be dominated by the fight against insurgency as well as the need to uplift his people.
The real thunderstorm in the politics of the region is the Vice President, Kashim Shettima, who has an eye on succeeding his boss – be it in 2027 or in the years after. At the moment, Shettima is reportedly working hard to assert himself as the leader of the politics of the North despite the fact that he lacked the political pedigree to that aspiration or the followership of a cross section of Northerners as his politics was largely confined to his state and his sub- region until his current charge.
A source told our correspondent that, “He wants to be a rallying point of politics of the region, to assert an influence that goes beyond his party, APC and to command loyalty of politicians across party lines.
“It is against the backdrop that he has somehow succeeded in excusing President Tinubu from some direct involvement in most political matters of the region…That is why he attends funerals (Ghali Na abba), graces weddings (Abacha) and pays sympathy visits (Plateau States) on behalf of the Federal Government.
“This ambition is also responsible for his subtle alliance with many governors in the region, irrespective of their political parties including that of Bauchi where he is said to be pushing for the governor to move to APC and widen his own influence.”
In summary, nothing much will change from his present conduct in 2024. Rather, he will navigate cautiously across the politics of the region in a bid to assert himself. And this will succeed as long as he has the confidence of his principal. But if for any unforeseen circumstance, there is a crack or a measure of ill -feelings between them, there will be many figures and vested interests that will frustrate his ambition. It is equally to be seen how he intends to overcome the likes of Atiku in the North east, Kwankwaso, Abdullahi Ganduje and Sule Lamido in the North west.
South East
In the South East in particular, the hope and expectations of the people from the governors of the zone are quite high.
South East Zone is at the moment, one of the zones in the country with multi-political parties in various states. Out of the five states of the zone, only the All Progressives Congress, APC has two governors to its credit -Imo and Ebonyi states.
Abia, Anambara and Enugu have governors elected on platforms of Labour Party, All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA and Peoples Democratic Party, PDP respectively.
In appraising the performance of these governors based on the expectations of the people, the South East Zone will be shaped by the level of work done by these leaders in consonance with the speed of time.
However, many salient issues will be put into consideration in rating the performance of Abia, Anambara, Imo and Enugu States.
Uzodimma
The Imo governor and the Chairman, South East Governors’ Forum recently won a landslide re-election in the state against a stiff opposition and scary security situation.
But today, he is the most influential APC chieftain and driving force of the party in the region on whose shoulders the burden of Ndigbo rests especially in the area of uniting the people and bridging the gap between the zone and the Federal Government.
His ability to mobilize his brother governors to liaise with the Federal Government and restructure the security of the zone will determine his image particularly in the region.
As widely speculated, the continued incarceration of the leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), Nnamdi Kanu, has been linked to the festering insecurity in the zone. So, securing Kanu’s unconditional freedom through political solution would determine Uzodimma’s rating.
The issue of regional economic development for the South East if actualized under the leadership of Uzodimma will be the focus of 2024 and determine the impact on the region.
Peter Mbah
The Enugu governor was elected on the platform of the PDP. Considering where he is coming from as an accomplished entrepreneur in the highly competitive nation’s oil industry, expectations are high the he will deliver by bringing his wealth of experience to bear on the governance of Enugu State. Having weathered the storm of a vicious electoral storm at the apex court of the country, Dr. Mbah is expected to turn around the development of the state for good.
In 2024, Mba’s all-encompassing digital blueprint is expected to maintain the momentum especially with the peace the state enjoys politically. He has started well and many believe he will sustain the momentum to bring back the glory of Enugu in infrastructure, security, education, health, Tourism, economy among others.
Dr. Alex Otti
He emerged the governor of the state on the platform of Labour Party after aspiring to that position for a record three times without success.
Finally luck smiled on the banker-turned politician with the overwhelming victory against his closest rival and candidate of the PDP, Chief Ahiwe despite the incumbency power of his predecessor, Okezie Ikpeazu.
Otti has since assumption of office rolled out programmes that many believed will lift Abia from the dungeon of underdevelopment and reposition the commercial and industrial city of Aba.
He brought construction Giant, Julius Berger to handle major road projects in the state especially within the Aba area and major parts of the state. This many believe was what the state lacked in the past.
Apart from the visible infrastructural revolution in Abaia under Dr. Otti, there seem to be heavy battle lying ahead of him. His party, LP has lost quite a number of seats at both National and State Assemblies, a situation that could trigger crisis in the party and Otti will be affected.
Despite the progress made so far in the state, Otti has been seen as a-one man riot governor who doesn’t listen to another person; a man who does only what he wants. In fact, many believe that his refusal to conduct local government election in the state is flagrant abuse of trust.
In 2024, many people especially the people of Abia State will be expecting Governor Otti to demonstrate statesmanship by upholding the constitution of the country by conducting local government election.
Next is the issue of insecurity, the governor has shown great zeal in tackling precipitating insecurity in Abaia State. His intervention in the Lokpa Nta killing fields has restored hope to the people of the state and those travelling through Abia State.
In 2024, it will be expected that Otti will put more effort in seeking political solution towards the release of one of the sons of the state and leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra, Mazi Nnamdi Kanu.
Prof. Chukwuma Soludo
The Anambra governor who will be wrapping up his first term in office as Governor of Anambara State will sit on edge throughout this year.
Till date, APGA has remained unbeaten in all the governorship elections that have held in the state since 2003. It is the kind of roots many believe will be difficult to uproot.
Even with the entrance of some political heavyweights like Senators Ifeanyi Uba and Uche Ekwunife who recently defected to APC from YPP and PDP respectively, Soludo as the incumbent can still weather the storm and launch back to Awka government house early 2025.
With the presidential candidate of Labour Party, LP, Mr. Peter Obi and his array of army led by Senators Victor Umeh and Tony Nwoye, Soludo will be one of the men that will shape 2024 if he surmounts the roadblock on his way.
APGA has the insignia of the late Dim Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu as its foundation and the slogan of the brotherhood of Ndigbo as their watchword.
However, the stylish encryption of ‘Onye aghana Nwanne ya’ (leaving no one behind) has been the driving force behind the success of the party as far as Anambra governorship election is concerned.
However, in the face of the visible fortunes of the party and its dominance in Anambra politics, time seems to have changed and the political landscape has been greatly rigged.
Many political analysts believe the political fortune of APGA has dwindled in the state and her chances of a smooth hold to power in doubt. They have put questions to the much celebrated slogan of 21 over 21.
Like Abia State’s Alex Otti, Prof Soludo has not conducted local government election in the state since his assumption of office on March 17, 2022. As expected, Anambara people expect him to conduct council election
