•Atiku, Tinubu, Peter Obi and Kwankwaso
Today’s ruling party at the federal level, All Progressives Congress (APC), was formed in February 2013 by forces opposed to then-President Goodluck Jonathan who appeared bent on securing reelection in 2015.
The mission was to stop Jonathan and his Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) more than two years before 2015 when he was due to be reelected and party to the merger of political parties were then Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP), and a faction of the PDP, among others.
President Bola Tinubu was among then-key leaders of the ACn while Muhammadu Buhari who would later succeed Jonathan as President in 2015 was a leader of the CPC, reports Sunday Vanguard.
Those who were from the faction of PDP but opposed to Jonathan were former VP Abubakar Atiku, then-Governor Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State, several other governors elected on the platform of the party and Senator Olusola Saraki, among others.
That realignment of forces took place in 2013 and that mission was successfully executed in 2015 when Jonathan was defeated in the presidential election.
Recall that Jonathan is the first incumbent President in Nigeria to be defeated in an election and he conceded defeat.
This January 2025 is about the time that APC was formed in 2013 and there are mutterings that a similar coalition in the offing could result in a strong party to confront President Bola Tinubu in 2027.
While Tinubu is constitutionally eligible to stand for re-election for his final term in 2027, opposition elements are said to be negotiating a fresh political platform to unseat him.
Prominent among those many believe could be in merger talks are Atiku, who flew the flag of the PDP in the 2023 presidential election but lost to President Tinubu, Mr Peter Obi who was the candidate of Labour Party in the election and Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso, the leader of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).
But the question being asked is if they, among others, could midwife a formidable platform to face the APC, not to talk of the capacity to wrest power from Tinubu in 2027.
Within the APC, Tinubu will not face much opposition as the Progressive Governors’ Forum PGF and the National Assembly leadership as well as the Dr Abdullahi Ganduje-led National Working Committee (NWC) of the ruling APC are well aligned with the President.
So, while he will have a smooth sail clinching the APC ticket, he may not have it easy with opposition elements already strategizing ahead of 2027.
This much was revealed by a former National Vice Chairman, North-West, of the APC, Salihu Moh. Lukman, who has since ditched the party and advocating a unity of opposition leaders to come up with an alternative platform.
Lukman, an ally of the former Governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir el-Rufai, himself an aggrieved element, said democracy under Tinubu has been turned on its head in Nigeria as so-called elected leaders have turned emperors.
He said political party structures are anything but democratic, and in fact, so-called political parties have become the catalyst and sources of national disappointment.
‘Unseating Tinubu difficult, but possible’
Noting that Nigerian political parties have disappointed Nigerians on the same scale, Lukman said it is predictable, things being equal, as we move towards 2027, that Nigerian politicians and political parties will disappoint Nigerians on a bigger scale.
According to him, the expectations for free, fair and credible elections in Nigeria may elude Nigerians once more.
“Or as was the case in 2015, we could have relatively free, fair and credible elections in 2027, which may only result in the defeat of APC and President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu with the attendant danger of retaining the status quo of producing leaders who are emperors, who would only pretentiously be committed to resolving Nigeria’s challenges”, he said.
“As Nigerians, we must rise to this challenge and make the defeat of APC and President Asiwaju not only possible in 2027 but most importantly guarantee the election of truly democratic leaders and not emperors. “The only way that could be possible is if as Nigerians we are able to focus ourselves to produce a functional political party that will respect its own rules. Certainly, such a functional political party must be distinctively different from APC, PDP, LP, NNPP and all the existing registered political parties in the country.
“Therein lies the difficult challenge. How can such a party be produced and by who? Is it a new party, which will apply for registration with INEC? Will it be registered? If not, what are the options? The other related question is whether such a party will be formed by the same politicians who were associated with APC and PDP, and in many respects, people who could be adjudged to be responsible for getting Nigeria to this messy situation”.
‘Premature’
In spite of the theory of rising expectations and the theory of rising frustrations simultaneously taking hold in the country due to the ongoing economic reforms of the President, his party, the APC, said the fruits of the reforms are gradually becoming manifest.
It, however, said it is likely to stick to its tradition of throwing open its presidential election ticket to allow those with ambitions test their popularity against Tinubu.
APC’s Director of Publicity, Bala Ibrahim, said the President as a reformist, democrat and businessman will not want to change the tradition.
He said; “Well, you see, politics is not a stationary affair. It is a continuum. You do politics almost as you do governance. And in politicking, you look at things, you have short-term, mid-term, and long-term plans.
“Depending on what the president or the elected person is looking at, you will always project, you will look ahead.
“You will not just be thinking of the immediate mandate given to you.
“Under the presidential system of government, every elected official, at least at the governor and presidential level, is given a four-year term.
“And for now, when we are talking about 2025, that is just midway, just two years into four-year-tenure.
“It’s going to be too early to start thinking of what to do after your four-year, when you have only done two years. “So for now, I would say it is premature to say whether the president is going to concentrate on re-election, because the time for re-election has not arrived. He still has time to complete the mandate given to him.
Level-playing-field
“So, at the party level, the party is always going to, as usual, provide a level-playing-field for everyone, regardless of his position, whether he’s elected or unelected.
“But the party will make sure that everybody who is a card-carrying member of the party and is eligible to contest is given the chance to contest.
“It is for him to test his popularity. If he is found suitable by the party, he will go into the race.
“If you look at the trajectory of the party and the antecedents of the party, it always gives people the chance.
“Even sitting presidents are always allowed to contest alongside other intending candidates.
“So I am not sure there is going to be a change this time around.
“Moreso that this is the first time Nigeria is having a democrat, a businessman, and a reformist as President. I don’t think he is going to change the tradition in such a way that it will be seen to favour him only”.
‘Reforms will bear fruits’
The APC also expressed optimism that the ongoing reforms undertaking by the President will bear more fruits ahead of the election.
Eager than being distracted, Ibrahim said the president is focusing on delivering on the gains of the reforms.
“I think with the level of awareness and the kind of results that are beginning to come in, even if at slow pace, Nigerians will come to realize that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu means well for them, he mean well for the country, and he wants to leave behind a legacy that will keep his name engraved in Nigeria”, the spokesperson said.
“So he will see to it that the reforms bear enough fruits before 2027, at least the kind of fruits that will stimulate people to have more confidence as to re-elect him in the event that he decides to contest again”.
Defections
The ruling party also gave itself a pass mark, saying ahead of 2027, it foresees and influx of opposition politicians into its fold.
According to him, any politician who is desirous of ensuring that dividends of democracy get to the people would naturally want to align with the APC.
He said; “Yes, with the way and manner crises are brewing all over the place among the opposition parties, and the loss of confidence that is increasingly becoming evident, I think more people who are desirous of fruitful democracy and good dividends of democracy going to the people will want to take sides with the ruling party, or at least the winning party.
“They will want to jump onto the bus of the APC, because that is the party to beat. That is where to be if you want to achieve the aim of giving leadership that is desirous by the people.
“So I see more people jumping the ship to come into the bus of the APC before the year 2027, when there is going to be another round of election”.
‘Power should stay in the South’
On its part, the Coalition of Southern Groups CSG, a non-partisan umbrella for all southern groups, says the current level of hardship in the country could affect Tinubu’s chances in 2027.
Expressing its desire to have the presidential tickets remain in the South till 2031, the coalition said it has no specific candidate for the 2027 election.
Chairman of the coalition and a former Commissioner in Imo State, Prof. Vitalis Orikeze Ajumbe, told our correspondent that it would be difficult to rig the 2027 presidential election.
He said: “Our group is non-partisan and if we are going by the Constitution, where 8 years will go to South and another 8 years will go to North, since the South has started with 4 years, it is proper that the South completes the other 4 years, making it 8.
“It doesn’t really matter who comes out. It may be the incumbent or it may be any other person from the South.
So we are not rooting for one particular person, but we are rooting for the entire South”.
On the coalition’s assessment of the president, Ajumbe decried the increasing cost of living, saying the reforms embarked on by Tinubu since he assumed office have not really translated into any tangible gains for Nigerians.
“Well, it has been hardship, hardship, hardship, even though the President has told us, has told Nigerians to endure a little, but that little is too much”, he said.
“We have endured and endured and some have died in the process.
“If you can see the people who were rushing for food, those who died in Anambra, those who died in Ibadan and Abuja, you will not know the kind of hardship that is in this country.
“But, unfortunately, we keep hearing of government agencies, people in government who are stealing millions or billions of Naira and nothing is being done to make them bring back the money.
“So Tinubu’s government for the past one year plus hasn’t really done so much. I give it to him that he had to revitalize the two refineries, one in Warri and one in Port Harcourt but it has not really shown much on the people. “Fuel price is still very high. When he came on board, I think petrol price was about N195 a litre.
“After reviving Port Harcourt and Warri refineries, and having Dangote Refinery, petrol price is still over N1, 000 per litre.
“So you can imagine the gap between N195 and over N1, 000 per litre.
“And transportation has helped to hike the prices of food items too because those who produce the food items are in the villages, are in the hinterlands, and they transport those goods to town.
“If the transporter that is taking them has charged them so much, of course they will need to plug that money into the cost of the food. So one, food scarcity is a minus for the government.
“Transportation issues, you can imagine a flight ticket, when he came on board, from Owerri to Abuja by flight was N40, 000 to N50, 000.
“Now it is over N200, 000. And not only that, I also heard that this year, the telecommunication companies are going to raise, hike their tariffs, by over 40 percent.
“This is punishment. Everything is high. Nothing seems to be coming down. So Nigerians are not really happy about this. The government should change its policies and look at the faces of Nigerians and the way they are suffering.
‘Military, security agencies, INEC won’t save underperforming incumbent’
“Eventually, is it not the people that vote? The people will speak and if he (Tinubu) has done very well, they will vote him back. If he has not done any good, they will not vote him back.
“But the fact remains that it is the people who will decide whether he will come or not, irrespective of, you are in charge of INEC, you are in charge of police, you are in charge of army, you are in charge of security.
“It may not happen in 2027. Let them not think that being in custody of the police and army and INEC will bring him back. It is not true.
“2027 will witness another wave. If you rigged in 2023 to become the president, in 2027, it may not be the same tactics because in the military, they say you don’t use the same tactics two times”.
