The Central Bank of Nigeria says 63.3 per cent of Nigerians want interest rates reduced ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting scheduled for May 19 and 20, 2026.
The apex bank disclosed this in its April 2026 Inflation Expectations Survey Report, released by its Statistics Department under the Economic Policy Directorate on its website and obtained by our correspondent yesterday, reports The PUNCH.
The report found that most respondents preferred lower borrowing costs despite persistent inflationary pressures across the economy. It stated, “The survey revealed high public engagement with CBN communications (92.1 per cent), a general perception of transparency (93.3 per cent), and a strong desire for a reduction in interest rates (63.3 per cent).”
According to the report, 26.0 per cent of respondents wanted interest rates retained at current levels, while 10.7 per cent supported a further rate hike. The development comes as the MPC prepares to take another decision on the Monetary Policy Rate amid concerns over inflation, exchange rate pressures, insecurity, and rising energy costs.
The survey showed that inflation perception worsened in April 2026, with 67.2 per cent of respondents describing inflation as high, up from 56.4 per cent recorded in March 2026.
The CBN noted that the Inflation Perception Index stood at 40.5 points in April, indicating that respondents still considered inflation elevated. It stated, “The Inflation Perception Index stood at 40.5 points in April 2026, suggesting that respondents still perceive inflation as high.”
The report further showed that inflation concerns were more pronounced among households than businesses. It stated that the proportion of households that perceived inflation as high increased from 61.7 per cent in March to 68.8 per cent in April, while the figure for businesses rose from 51.9 per cent to 65.9 per cent within the same period.
Analysis by business size showed that micro businesses recorded the highest inflation perception at 69.9 per cent, while medium businesses had the lowest at 63.2 per cent. The survey also revealed a sharp disparity across income groups.
According to the report, households earning below N70,000 monthly recorded the highest inflation perception at 77.9 per cent, while respondents earning between N250,001 and N350,000 reported the lowest perception of high inflation at 46.6 per cent.
Rural households were also more affected, with 70.4 per cent reporting high inflation perception compared to 67.6 per cent among urban households. On the major drivers of inflation, respondents identified energy costs, transportation, exchange rate pressures, insecurity, and infrastructure challenges as the top factors fuelling rising prices.
The report stated, “Business and household respondents identified energy, transportation, exchange rate, and infrastructure as the major drivers of their perceptions of inflation.”
Despite the current inflation concerns, respondents expressed optimism that inflationary pressures could moderate over the next six months.
Further analysis showed that 58.5 per cent of respondents expected inflation to increase next month, while 56.7 per cent and 54.4 per cent expected inflation to rise over the next three and six months, respectively. However, the proportion expecting inflation to decline increased steadily from 11.0 per cent for next month to 20.4 per cent over the next six months.
On expenditure outlook, the report showed that 67.9 per cent of respondents expected spending to rise in the current month, with businesses recording slightly higher expenditure expectations at 69.0 per cent compared to 66.7 per cent for households.
According to the report, the survey covered 3,587 respondents comprising 1,923 firms and 1,664 households selected from the National Bureau of Statistics establishment frame and the National Population Commission’s National List of Enumeration Areas.
Economist and Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Muda Yusuf, said while inflationary pressures and rising liquidity ahead of the 2027 elections may push the Monetary Policy Committee towards retaining its tight stance, further monetary tightening could hurt economic growth and private sector investment.
In a statement issued yesterday ahead of the 305th MPC meeting, Yusuf said the committee would likely consider “heightened geopolitical uncertainties and emerging fiscal liquidity risks” in taking its decision.
He noted that rising political spending ahead of the 2027 elections, increased election-related expenditures, and improved Federation Account Allocation Committee allocations to states could worsen liquidity conditions and inflationary pressures.
Yusuf stated, “Accordingly, there is a strong possibility that the Committee may be inclined towards a cautious tightening bias or a prolonged retention of the current tight monetary stance in order to contain inflation expectations, reinforce policy credibility and sustain investor confidence.”
However, he warned against additional rate hikes, saying the economy remained fragile and structurally constrained.
“The Nigerian economy remains fragile and structurally constrained. Further tightening of monetary conditions could significantly weaken credit expansion, dampen investment appetite, and undermine the fragile recovery momentum within the real sector,” he said.
According to him, Nigeria’s inflation problem is largely driven by structural and supply-side factors such as energy costs, transportation expenses, logistics bottlenecks, and infrastructure challenges, rather than excessive consumer demand.
He said, “Monetary tightening is generally more effective in addressing demand-pull inflation arising from heightened aggregate demand and liquidity expansion. Its effectiveness in addressing supply-side inflation shocks is considerably more limited.”
Yusuf added that higher interest rates would increase borrowing costs, weaken manufacturing competitiveness, suppress small business growth, and slow investments at a time when the economy required productivity-enhancing investments and job creation.
He urged the monetary authorities to adopt “a carefully calibrated and balanced monetary policy stance that preserves macroeconomic stability while avoiding excessive tightening capable of undermining economic recovery and private sector resilience.”
Analysts at United Capital Plc Research also projected that the MPC would likely retain the current monetary policy stance at its May 19–20, 2026, meeting despite rising inflationary pressures.
In its Monetary Policy Watch report dated May 14, 2026, the firm said the MPC was facing growing pressure to balance inflation control with the need to support economic growth amid global and domestic uncertainties.
The analysts noted that the ongoing United States-Iran crisis had worsened inflationary risks through higher crude oil prices, transportation costs, and logistics expenses.
The report stated, “The MPC’s upcoming decision will largely depend on striking a balance between inflation and economic growth.”
According to the analysts, although rising inflation would ordinarily justify another rate hike, the current inflationary trend is largely supply-driven, making further tightening less effective.
It stated, “Ordinarily, an inflation uptick would justify a rate hike. However, given the external and transitory nature of the current price increases, an increase in the policy rates may be less effective.”
United Capital Research added that exchange rate stability and improving oil production provided some support for maintaining the current policy stance.
The analysts also warned about weakening economic activities, citing Nigeria’s Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index, which fell into contraction territory at 49.4 points in April from 53.2 points in March.
They stated, “If the contraction continues, the outlook suggests weaker business confidence, lower investment activities, and a decline in Gross Domestic Product growth. Under this condition, an expansionary monetary policy may be appropriate.”
The firm projected that the MPC would retain the Monetary Policy Rate at 26.5 per cent, keep the Cash Reserve Ratio for commercial banks at 45 per cent, and maintain the liquidity ratio at 30 per cent. However, it expected an adjustment of the Cash Reserve Requirement on non-TSA public sector deposits to 85 per cent from 75 per cent.
