•Bismarck Rewane
Economist and Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Limited, Bismarck Rewane, has projected that the naira would trade within N1,600-N1,650 to a dollar in the near term.
Rewane said this during his presentation at the June edition of the Lagos Business School Breakfast session, reports The PUNCH.
The analysts who did a mid-term economic review of the current administration maintained that the Nigerian currency remains undervalued by 26.82 per cent, while the dollar, which has weakened by 8.7 per cent year-to-date, could support the strengthening of the naira.
He said, “The official and parallel market rates have converged more closely. Now trading within a 1–3 per cent margin. A major improvement from the 50–70 per cent gap observed pre-reforms. The spread is now within the N50 margin, meaning that the naira is now fairly priced and the naira will trade at about N1,600-N1,650/$”.
For the June/July period, Rewane projected that “inflation data will reveal a slight decline to 23.15 per cent. The real GDP growth for Q1 25 will come out at 3.4 per cent.
“Brent will trade at $60-$63 pb as OPEC+ increases output. Nigeria’s oil production will increase to 1.5 mbpd. The price of PMS will decline marginally to N845/litre. Diesel will trade at N950/litre. Corporate profitability in Q2’25 will increase as companies carry lower inventory.
“FAAC allocation will be flat at N1.6tn as corporate income tax clawback reduces tax liabilities.”
He also projected that the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria would drop the benchmark rate by 50bp at its next meeting. He added that Nigeria will be mostly unaffected by the tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump in the global trade arena.
Rewane’s projection on the naira was substantiated by analysts at Meristem, who estimated that it would remain relatively stable at the official window, supported by sustained FX interventions and improved market liquidity.
“However, the parallel market is likely to remain under pressure, especially if downward risks to FX inflows persist and speculative demand stays elevated. As a result, the widening spread between both markets may linger in the near term,” he stated.
In May, the naira appreciated marginally at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market, suggesting a relatively steady FX supply supported by the CBN’s sustained interventions. It, however, depreciated month-on-month at the parallel market, widening the spread between both markets to N24.25/$ in May from N1.69/$ in April.
The Meristem monthly report noted that this was the first notable divergence since March 2025 and attributed the widening gap to sustained demand pressures and speculative activities amid growing uncertainties in the global market.
On the corporate performance front, Rewane painted a positive picture, saying there was strong revenue and profit growth, reflecting robust business performance and higher domesticated debt which shields firms from naira devaluation risks tied to foreign loans.
“The private sector also has faster access to local funding, ideal for working capital and short-term needs, as seen in the volume of commercial papers being offered. This reliable domestic credit has supported expansion and bridge financing for corporate Nigeria.
“These factors have led to the projection of a positive outlook for the Nigerian private sector as corporates adapt by repricing, local sourcing, and digital transformation.
“Investor sentiment is warming, fuelled by forex reforms, policy clarity, and signs of macroeconomic stabilisation. Investors are showing renewed interest, particularly in banks, infrastructure, and energy, but are still watching the policy environment. “Portfolio investors are slowly returning, encouraged by higher yields, a more flexible exchange rate, and enhanced central bank transparency,” Rewane added.
