Across regions and value chains, agriculture stakeholders warn that soaring prices of fertilisers, seeds, agrochemicals, fuel, and machinery now pose one of the gravest threats to food security, with implications that could deepen as the country progresses into 2026.
While food prices have moderated in many markets, farmers and analysts say the relief masks a deeper crisis in production, where escalating input costs are squeezing margins, discouraging investment, and weakening incentives to farm, reports Daily Independent.
For many producers, the cost of putting food in the ground is rising faster than the value of what they harvest.
In separate interviews with our correspondent, stakeholders in the sector warned that without urgent action to reduce input costs, improve budget implementation, and stabilise farmer incomes, Nigeria risks sliding into a preventable food crisis.
Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), describes the cost of farm inputs as prohibitively high, arguing that urgent intervention is needed to prevent a reversal of recent food security gains.
According to him, fertilisers, improved seeds and seedlings, agrochemicals, farm machinery and equipment, livestock feeds and vaccines, as well as storage and packaging materials have become increasingly unaffordable for farmers across value chains.
Yusuf insists that reducing the cost of inputs must be treated as a core food security strategy.
He also highlights the need for single-digit loan facilities and improved technical support and extension services, noting that high financing costs compound production challenges. Without stabilising farmer incomes, he warns, Nigeria’s agricultural transformation will remain elusive.
“Price collapses destroy incentives to farm, reduce production over time, and worsen rural poverty,” Yusuf says, calling for a structured framework that combines price stabilisation tools, buffer stock reforms, storage and logistics investment, processing expansion, structured trading systems, financing solutions, and insurance mechanisms.
He urges collaboration among federal and state governments, commodity exchanges, development finance institutions, and private investors to establish a transparent and fiscally sustainable farmer income protection system. On the farm, the impact of rising input costs is already being felt.
In northern Nigeria, Sani Danladi, National Secretary of the National Tomato Growers, Processors and Marketers Association of Nigeria (NATPAN), says the current season has delivered a bumper harvest alongside an unprecedented crash in commodity prices. A 100-kilogramme bag of maize or rice, he notes, now sells for about N25,000 in some markets, a level he describes as unsustainable given the cost of production.
“You cannot justify buying a bag of fertiliser at N50,000 and selling a bag of maize at N20,000. If I sell one bag of maize to buy one bag of fertiliser, that is fair. But when I have to sell two or three bags to buy one bag of fertiliser, it is not fair.”
According to him, unless the cost of agricultural inputs is brought down, many farmers may retreat from production, a development that could deepen Nigeria’s dependence on imports — an option he says the country cannot sustain given its population size and foreign exchange constraints.
African farmer Mogaji, Agribusiness Analyst, traces part of the current challenge to the sharp rise in fertiliser prices following the easing of interventions.
He notes that prices have climbed from about N35,000 last year to between N60,000 and N70,000 per bag in many locations, forcing farmers — particularly grain producers — to scale back.
“For crops like maize, which require heavy fertiliser application, farmers may need seven to ten bags to achieve good yields. At current prices, many farmers have cut down on grains, and that means we are likely to see a shortfall this year.”
Mogaji adds that although limited grain importation helped stabilise prices, the failure to mop up excess supply in time due to budget constraints left many farmers exposed to losses. He also criticises state governments for neglecting storage responsibilities, noting the absence of state owned silos and refrigerated facilities to preserve grains and vegetables.
Beyond input costs, Mogaji warns that insecurity and falling incomes are reinforcing fear among farmers and agribusiness investors.
With input prices rising by over 40 percent and incomes declining, he cautions that adulteration of inputs could increase, leading to lower yields and disease outbreaks if quality control is not enforced. Other stakeholders echo these concerns.
Prince Oyewumi Oyedele Oyetunde, Editor-in-Chief, Farmers Choice Magazine, points to fertiliser and fuel price hikes as major pressures on smallholder margins, while insecurity in farming regions continues to suppress output and discourage investment.
He also highlights persistent underinvestment and policy implementation gaps that limit the reach of government support into rural communities.
Anibe Achimugu, President, National Cotton Association of Nigeria (NACOTAN), notes that tight monetary conditions and high benchmark interest rates have constrained access to affordable credit for mechanisation, processing, storage, and input financing.
According to him, high fertiliser, agrochemical, energy, and transport costs— combined with inadequate storage and aggregation systems —mean that farmers continue to lose value even when production improves.
Austine Gbenga Adeniba, the COO of Eliakim Integrated Services Limited, similarly observes that despite moderating food prices, farmers are struggling with soaring costs of fertilisers, pesticides, and high-quality hybrid seeds.
Poor rural road networks and limited cold storage facilities, he adds, are contributing to post-harvest losses, while mechanisation and digital adoption remain slow due to weak extension services.
Aolat Idowu-Agbelekale, an Agribusiness expert, highlights increased output of staple crops such as rice, sorghum, maize, cassava, and millet, alongside reduced food prices across all six geopolitical zones. She acknowledges that rising costs of seeds, seedlings, fertilisers, and fuel remain a major constraint for smallholder farmers, threatening the sustainability of current improvements.
