Nigeria and much of the global community remain off track in meeting the 2025 milestones of the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) End TB Strategy, with new data showing slower-than-required declines in tuberculosis (TB) deaths and infections.
In its latest assessment, WHO said the End TB Strategy, endorsed by the World Health Assembly in 2014 and designed to end the global TB epidemic by 2035, set ambitious interim targets for 2025: a 75 percent reduction in TB deaths and a 50 percent reduction in TB incidence compared with 2015 levels. However, by the end of 2025, global progress fell short of these benchmarks.
Global TB mortality declined by only 29 percent against the 75 percent target, while incidence dropped by just 12.3 percent compared with the expected 50 percent reduction, reports Daily Independent.
WHO said these gaps show the world remains significantly behind schedule in efforts to curb one of the deadliest infectious diseases.
Nigeria’s burden remains particularly high. The country recorded an estimated 510,000 new TB cases in 2024, translating to an incidence rate of 219 per 100,000 population.
TB continues to be a major cause of death, with 56,000 deaths among HIV-negative people and 5,800 deaths among people living with HIV in the same year.
While Nigeria achieved a 63 percent reduction in TB deaths between 2015 and 2024, WHO noted with concern that incidence rates showed no overall decline, suggesting ongoing community transmission despite improved treatment outcomes.
Data from WHO’s 2025 global tuberculosis report showed 402,051 people were diagnosed with new or relapse TB cases in Nigeria in 2024, with 405,324 cases notified nationwide. Of these, 69 percent were tested using rapid diagnostic tools, while 98 percent had their HIV status determined. Pulmonary TB accounted for 99 percent of reported cases, with 80 percent bacteriologically confirmed.
TB and HIV co-infection also remain a challenge. About 25,000 TB cases occurred among people living with HIV in 2024, representing an incidence rate of 11 per 100,000 population. WHO said 18,982 of the notified TB cases, or 4.8 percent, were among people living with HIV, with 89 percent receiving antiretroviral therapy.
Drug-resistant TB is another major concern. Nigeria recorded about 8,200 cases of multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant TB (MDR/RRTB) in 2024. Although 81 percent of new bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary TB cases were tested for rifampicin resistance, only 3,090 people with confirmed rifampicin-resistant TB were started on treatment.
Despite these challenges, treatment outcomes were relatively strong. Success rates reached 94 percent among new or relapse TB cases who started treatment in 2023, and 83 percent among TB patients living with HIV. However, success rates were lower, at 76 percent, for rifampicin-resistant TB cases.
Beyond health outcomes, WHO highlighted the severe economic toll of TB on Nigerian households. Seventy-one percent of TB-affected families faced catastrophic costs, based on the most recent national survey conducted in 2017. WHO said this reflects persistent gaps in social protection and progress towards universal health coverage.
Funding constraints remain critical. Only US$114 million was available for TB prevention, diagnosis and treatment services in Nigeria in 2024, with just 18 percent from domestic sources.
For 2025, Nigeria’s national TB budget was estimated at US$405 million, but 73 percent of the required funding remained unfunded, raising concerns about sustainability.
At the global level, Nigeria is among the top eight countries driving the TB burden, accounting for 4.8 percent of global cases. WHO’s Global Tuberculosis Report 2025 said 87 percent of all TB cases reported in 2024 occurred in just 30 countries.
TB remains one of the world’s deadliest infectious killers, claiming more than 1.2 million lives and affecting an estimated 10.7 million people in 2024. Although global incidence fell by nearly 2 percent and deaths declined by 3 percent between 2023 and 2024, WHO warned progress remains fragile and uneven.
WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said recent declines in TB burden and improvements in testing, treatment, social protection and research were encouraging, but stressed they do not amount to victory.
“TB continues to claim over a million lives each year, despite being preventable and curable. This is simply unconscionable,” he said, urging countries to accelerate efforts to end TB by 2030.
WHO cautioned that global funding for TB response has stagnated since 2020, and warned that planned donor cuts from 2025 could have devastating consequences. Modelling studies suggest such reductions could result in up to 2 million additional deaths and 10 million new TB cases between 2025 and 2035.
The organisation stressed that without increased domestic investment, expanded preventive treatment, stronger health systems and sustained political commitment, Nigeria and the global community risk falling further behind in the fight to end TB.
