•Umeh
Victor Umeh is a senator representing Anambra Central at the National Assembly. The former chairman of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and now, a chieftain of the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC), in this interview, takes a look at the 2027 general elections with a verdict that his party stands a big chance to take over the centre, reports Daily Independent.
Excerpts:
Peter Obi got 25% in 2023. Bola Tinubu won roughly 37% of the presidential election votes while Atiku got about 29%. After being inspired by an extraordinary movement in 2023, Obi came third nationally. What would you say has fundamentally changed that makes you believe he can move from roughly a quarter of the national vote to the presidency in 2027?
From the statistics you read out now, the president had 37 percent while Atiku got 29 percent, it is like a race where the frontrunner can still be overtaken at any point.
This exercise we are getting into requires a very transparent, credible, free and fair process for you to begin to use outcomes or results of previous elections to determine its integrity.
There’s no way somebody can be intimidated with transparency and fairness. It’s not all the way out because you can see that from the performance of Peter Obi in 2023, nobody, even before the election, gave him any chance to even score 10%.
In fact, I remember that so many people in my state who were not supporting him said he would not get 25% in more than one state.
So, maybe they were considering that he may get 25% in only Anambra. But he stunned everybody. He scored 25% in over 20 states and won 12 states outrightly. So with that first performance, I’m sure his opponents are rattled now, particularly those in government.
And what you need to continue to measure the development of democracy is to ensure that the institutions that manage the process will be more transparent than they had been in the past, so that Nigeria will be held as a country that is capable of conducting elections.
If we think that somebody is ubiquitous or a party is ubiquitous, it cannot be beaten, therefore, that party cannot be challenged, we’ll be making a mistake.
This is because today, what we read is that APC has 31 or 32 state governors. Sometimes they say 32 because you don’t know who will defect and join them tomorrow.
So there are those who are not in their party, but they are working for them, meaning that if you add them, they may be having 34, but something that should always be in the minds of Nigerians will be what played out in Osun State recently.
In Osun State, Ademola Adeleke, the governor, came through the Accord Party. Accord Party had nothing in Nigeria, but with that Accord Party, he defeated the APC candidate hands down. That is the power of the ballot box, and also the power of the citizens’ right to choose who will represent them. We have to give it to the people of Osun State. If they were differentiated and after voting, the results are manipulated, Adeleke will be in one corner now chilling. But because the people came all out and alive to their responsibilities as people who should defend their votes and their choice, Adeleke won and had his mandate given to him by his people.
People are arguing that INEC used that as a decoy to allow the election to be free and fair in Osun so that people will see that they will do well in the next general elections. Let them keep to it; let them repeat their neutrality in Osun State across Nigeria.
The contention about who will be defeated or who will win should not be anybody’s problem. Anybody can win. Even Tinubu can win, but let him win on his record and approval by the Nigerian citizens.
There is no doubt that Peter Obi did well in the last election where he won 12 states, including the Federal Capital Territory. It will be assumed that the South East is locked down for him in 2027. People are not only asking about the region and the other states he won, but are asking which other areas, particularly those considered for Tinubu and Atiku, can your candidate penetrate?
It’s like one counting his chickens before they are hatched. We have four months to campaign ahead of the election proper. What we won’t need to do is to allow joining issues with all the candidates. To me, let them do debate. Saying election can change within 24 hours is not feasible. Nigerians should hear and listen to the candidates roll out their plans for the citizens. But I know nobody can beat Peter Obi in a place like Kano because of Kwankwaso.
He is the vice presidential candidate of NDC. No matter the noise they make in Kano, nobody will beat him there. I can bet that once the election is credible, Kwankwaso will have his base for the ticket. I have been with him and the other leaders of the party very closely. The party is well more prepared to be an opposition party that will contest this election with very credible candidates and win. Look at what Lulu Briggs did in Port Harcourt. Just first outing, Port Harcourt was shut down. Those people that were following them in Port Harcourt last week are Nigerians that will vote at the election.
Something must be motivating and driving the people, the voting population. Forget the noise about some of the things they say; those in the crowd are also going to be the voters.
Obi is very popular; why did they stop him from coming to Benue? It was because they knew how his presence always pulls crowd.
So you mean Lulu Briggs Can sweep Rivers State, even with Nyesom Wike and Rainbow Coalition holding sway in the state?
Anything can happen because looking at that day that they were in Port Harcourt, so many important stakeholders in Rivers State were there.
So as it is now heading into the next election, the result is not something that anyone can stay in his room and say that it’s all over. Everybody will work hard. The Rainbow Coalition will work hard in Rivers State, no doubt about it, because they will want to win. They cannot say that they have won already just because they have a huge presence there because it is not always like that.
Although they are preparing, they will have to prove that they are ready and better but they cannot do without the people and they cannot rule out elements of surprise.
I can tell you that on election day, there are rooms for surprises because Peter Obi remains a big force given his records and what he has done.
Is the Obedient Movement still going to be a factor for Peter Obi?
You are seeing it and you are asking me the question. Like I said earlier, look at what happened in Port Harcourt. The city was shut down. Kwankwaso first went there and held meetings with Hausa Community and you heard how they were shouting ‘Sai OK, Sai OK’. It was a massive crowd that identified with them and that will show you that the ticket is accepted.
So what we are telling you is that you cannot predict victory for anybody in a clean electoral process, let us not deceive ourselves.
As we go on, we are only asking for liberties of all candidates and parties to be respected. Let there be no intimidation or muzzling of anybody. Nobody should be intimidated because of elections. The intimidation that Governor Alia did in Benue State is worthy of reprimand. I learnt that they have arrested 46 brigands, including officials of his government who blocked the roads and we want to see how those people will be prosecuted and put to jail so that nobody will repeat it.
It’s like the South East for example where Peter Obi comes from; South East region is open for everyone to come and campaign because we are very civilised people. Tinubu is free to come to the South East to campaign. Atiku Abubakar is free to come to the South East to campaign. Adebayo is free to come to South East and campaign. In fact all the candidates are free to come to the South East to campaign because we don’t intimidate anyone.
It has never happened in the past that any candidate was intimidated in the South East while on campaign and it won’t happen now. Our people will receive you and listen to you and see what you are telling them that will make them vote for you. This exchange of ideas and policies we want to implement should be allowed to sell through to the voting public. Nobody should be intimidated. There were cases in the 2023 election where people were ordered not to come out even in Lagos State. The Igbos were threatened not to come out on election day. Those things cannot be allowed to prevail in our democracy. Let us be able to go anywhere to speak to the people on programmes and policies without any fear of intimidation. Let us be able to go to Borno State. Let us be able to go to Zamfara State. Let us be able to go to Bauchi, Sokoto, intact everywhere. Let people who are doing these things stop because they are not in any way helping the country. Nigerians should have their rights to go every part of the country unmolested.
Why do you think that there is some kind of difficulty with Peter Obi’s acceptance, particularly in the north?
Peter Obi is massively followed and accepted even in the north; the problem is that some people are afraid of his popularity. All that they say about his non-acceptance in the north are propaganda and make-believe.
What of the North East and North West going by the results of the 2023 election where he didn’t do quite well?
Peter Obi got votes there. He got votes in other parts of the North. He got massive votes in North Central. What we know is that there are 19 states in the north. Southern Nigeria has 17 states. In Northern Nigeria, Peter Obi won some states and got a consequential 25% victory in a place like Adamawa State. In Borno, he did very well, go and look at the figures.
Things are changing today. For instance, today, the youths who own Nigeria now and tomorrow have seen that they cannot remain with the prejudices and misdirection of their leaders in the past because the things that have happened in the past years have not helped them. The youths cannot be deceived any longer with flimsy things like region and religion as the hardship they currently face has changed their mindsets.
Beyond this political conversation and the permutations about the votes, the patterns and where the votes are going to come from, is whether or not the man that you are supporting has a better idea compared to others. For example, can he do anything better than Bola Tinubu? There are those who are looking at the antecedents of both candidates. There are those who say a Bola Tinubu Lagos was far better than a Peter Obi Anambra State when they were governors?
Let me take you on your argument. In Lagos that he governed eight years, Peter Obi defeated him. Has that not put flat to that argument? You cannot say that Bola Tinubu is better because if it is so, he would have won Lagos. He didn’t win Lagos. Votes were declared and he didn’t win. It is like that in all situations.
In terms of ideas, you cannot compare Anambra with Lagos in terms of resources. Lagos IGR is more than 20 times what they get in Anambra. Lagos is the commercial city of the country.
In Anambra in eight years, Peter Obi was able to make that state a modern state. He revived the education sector and made the state vibrant in so many areas.
There was this story that Peter Obi held El-Rufai hostage when he visited Anambra and that time, Obi was still the governor of the state. Did Peter Obi lock or hold El-Rufai hostage in Anambra until after an election that year?
I was the national chairman of APGA during that time and during that particular election. Peter Obi did not hold him hostage.
The reason I tell you so is that I was on ground and I was one of the people that directed the election on behalf of APGA.
What happened was that El-Rufai came on the day of the election. Campaigns had ended three days before the election and when you finish your nationwide campaign, you should go back to your state and prepare to vote on the day of the election. If you come to a state where you do not belong on the day of the election to do any form of campaign, you are bound to be stopped because you are not a voter. You have no business to do in the streets. He had no business in the streets of Anambra and he was not also held hostage. He took me to court that time because I was the national chairman and I said he had no business in Anambra State.
So is the matter still like that?
I don’t know what has happened whether he struck out the case because he couldn’t prove his case against me. But one thing I will tell you is that nobody took him to court.
