•Terrorists
Last weekend’s terrorist assault in Mali that led to the death of the country’s Defence Minister, Sadio Camara has sent shockwaves across West Africa with foreign policy experts warning that Nigeria could be the next if regional coordination and intelligence do not improve.
The experts, who spoke in separate interviews with our correspondent, warned of a domino effect that could see similar attacks spill into Nigeria’s North West and North Central regions if urgent action is not taken, reports Vanguard.
Jihadists militant in a rare show of unity with Tuareg separatists had, over the weekend, launched coordinated attacks across multiple regions in the country, thereby renewing fears about the Southward spread of Sahelian jihadism into Nigeria’s North West and North Central regions.
The assault comes amid rising jihadist violence in the Sahel following coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, the withdrawal of French forces, and the exit of the United Nations (UN) peacekeepers.
Nigeria’s North West and North Central are already battling banditry and insurgent-linked attacks, including a recent raid in an orphanage in Kogi State.
The experts, meanwhile, agree that while Nigeria has security architecture in place, the Mali precedent shows that jihadist groups are scaling up coordination and ambition and warned that without regional unity, intelligence and clear results, Nigeria could be the next.
Domino theory playing out — Otubanjo
Prof. Femi Otubanjo, Research Professor at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, NIIA, said that Nigeria obviously has reason to worry over the development in Mali, saying that ‘domino theory’ seemed to be playing out.
“There’s a military principle called the domino theory. If the domino falls, the other dominoes are likely to fall. West Africa is the epicentre of extreme jihadism in the world now. If any jihadist group has the upper hand in any country, it’s going to be an encouragement to the others around,” Otubanjo said.
“If they take Mali and become the government of Mali, obviously, it means that we should be expecting the expansion of jihadism in the sub-region.”
He lamented that Nigeria’s insurgency does not seem to be diminishing despite years of military operations. And criticised lack of tangible results from Nigeria’s security strategy
“It’s like somebody goes into an exam and spends three hours writing the paper. The fact that he completed the hour does not mean that he will pass. The result is what will determine the path; We are not seeing any tangible results from our military, our security strategy,” he said.
He pointed to external support and encouragement, saying: “When terrorist organisations begin to come together, it means that there are forces outside that are bringing them together. It means that they are being supplied, they are being encouraged.”
On the Multinational Joint Task Force, MNJTF, he said: “They ought to be equipped. We are spending a very huge proportion of our budget on security affairs, but we have not seen the results.”
He warned that insecurity was displacing Northerners and crippling commerce.
“Any fever in any part of West Africa will have serious consequences for the other part. There’s no country in West Africa that can take the scourge of refugees that will come from Nigeria if we get into any violent altercation with ourselves.”
He urged ECOWAS to become the centre of counterinsurgency in West Africa and called for proactive regional coordination, open national conversation on security and better intelligence gathering. “We need to be proactive… If we are not able to deal with it ourselves, seek international assistance. Until the problem is solved, you must continue to find solutions,” he stressed.
No need to panic, but tighten security— Ochogwu
Dr. Joseph Ochogwu, Director General, Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution, IPCR, said coordinated attacks can happen anywhere if intelligence fails.
“You can see the attack on the president of the United States, Donald Trump, enemies of the state are daredevil people who want to create a sense of insecurity,” he said, citing the Kuje prison attack near Abuja.
He emphasised the need for the government to strengthen intelligence, and tighten up security, stressing that the state must create a deep sense of fear “that if you dare, you won’t succeed and you’ll pay dearly for it.”
Ochogwu argued that Nigeria’s security architecture was holding forte.
He said: “If they are not in place, we would have been run over. You know the number of Guards Brigade and artillery divisions and intelligence units too that are out there.”
He, however, urged citizens’ cooperation, saying that it was key to curtailing insurgency. “When you as a citizen see something, you alert them, you’ve played your role… Once the information comes, there should be an action. Oftentimes, that is where the problem lies.”
On counterterrorism, he said Nigeria needs partners to provide satellite imaging to precise locations, and precision equipment. “We have the men on the ground. We have the air component, This is a time for counterterrorism partners to support the Nigerian counterterrorism efforts.”
Nigeria vulnerable, ECOWAS must unite — Ayeleru
Prof. Babatunde Ayeleru of the Department of European Studies, University of Ibandan and former CEO, Nigeria French Village, Lagos, said it would be unwise to think that such a coordinated attack cannot happen to any West African countries, including Nigeria and called on the government to double efforts against insurgency.
He said: “Nigeria needs to learn from the Malian experience and double her efforts at the war against insurgency and insecurity. Nigeria is currently vulnerable given the spate of violent attacks going on in a number of Northern states,” he said.
He called for the MNJTF to be further strengthened and warned that ECOWAS disunity was a threat.
“The crack experienced as a result of the exit from ECOWAS by the Sahel countries of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso is already a source of concern for the maintenance of peace in the subregion,” he said.
Ayeleru said the capture of Malian cities “are capable of weakening the security architecture of Nigeria as a neighboring country.”
He predicted illicit trade, weapon-smuggling and disruption of food supply to Nigeria as a result and urged Abuja to “suspend the ongoing efforts at reopening its borders with those troubling countries.”
The real gap is operational — Ojumu
Femi Ojumu, Foreign Policy Expert and International Lawyer, said that the Mali experience mirrors the devastation Boko Haram, ISWAP, and Lakurawa groups have inflicted in Northern Nigeria.
He noted that despite gallant troops, Nigeria was hampered by an operational gap between strategic interagency coordination, actionable intelligence, and effective kinetic operations.
He said though foreign partnership was good, Nigeria needs “organic development of its own security arrangements which prioritise its own national interests.
He stated that MNJTF and ECOWAS security arrangements have proven incapable of sustainably quelling terrorism. “That challenge speaks to significant internal divisions within ECOWAS itself, not least with the exit of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Again, that lacuna imperils the effectiveness for counter terrorist activities in the Sahel,” Ojumu said.
Similar daring attacks already happening in Nigeria — Oshodi
Also speaking, Dr. Abdul-Gafar Tobi Oshodi of Department of Political Science, Lagos State University, said the Mali killings aren’t new to Nigeria, saying that daring attacks are already occurring here.
“The question isn’t about if similar attacks can happen in Nigeria; “they’re already here,” he said.
“The last couple of months have been deadly. From Adamawa, Borno, to Jos, the lives of Nigerians have been cut short. Just like Gen. Camara, Brig. Gen. Oseni Braimah was killed by Boko Haram a few weeks ago. Earlier, Brig. Gen. Musa Uba was killed by ISWAP late last year. In many ways, the same daring attacks have happened in Nigeria this year. Certainly, the Northwest and North Central are in the eyes of the storm,” Odhodi said.
He noted that the breakout of the Alliance of Sahelian States had weakened the collective front that once existed and noted that Nigeria can’t lead Africa on security while its own territory was under attack.
