The quarterfinal first leg games of the ongoing premier European club competition, the UEFA Champions League, produced some memorable moments, which are as surprising as they were exciting for pundits and supporters.
Perhaps, grabbing attention prior to the first leg games was the highly anticipated match between the cup holders and 15 times winners, Real Madrid, and Arsenal, and the attention on the supposedly David versus Goliath battle was premised on not only because it involved the defending champion but because their opponent enjoys huge followership across the world.
It was also memorable because the Gunners, which have seen droughts in the last two seasons despite coming close to silverwares, have once again shown promises in the competition after inadvertently surrendering the domestic title to Liverpool, with no intent on grabbing attention in the Champions League.
With the odds in favour of the cup holders, the battle at the Emirates and the commanding 3-0 result afterwards changed the dynamics, reports Sunday Independent.
For instance, despite impressive victories for Paris Saint-Germain and Barcelona on Wednesday night, Opta has rated Arsenal as the favourites to win their first-ever Champions League.
The Gunners’ lack of European pedigree was held against them as they prepared for that quarterfinal first leg against Madrid, but Mikel Arteta’s men produced a coming-of-age display.
The 3-0 victory, one inspired by Declan Rice’s free-kick mastery, leaves them with a foot in the last four. Still, Wednesday’s second leg at the Santiago Bernabeu has potential to be nervy. This is because Madrid have a knack for turning such situations around, and they can’t be written off until the very last.
Despite the expected challenge ahead at the Bernabau, Opta’s supercomputer is backing Arsenal to ascend into a previously untouched realm at the end of May.
Opta’s Champions League projection is based on 10,000 computer run simulations, with an update supplied after this week’s first legs.
The computer has been bullish on Arsenal’s chances in Europe throughout the season, but never before have they backed the Gunners as favourites. Their stunning performance last Tuesday changed that, with Opta now backing Arteta’s men to have a 27.8% chance of winning the Champions League.
They’re convinced of Arsenal’s progression into the last four (95.7% chance), and rate the Gunners chances of reaching the final at 52.9%. If they complete the job in the Spanish capital next week, Arsenal will face PSG or Aston Villa with a trip to the Allianz Arena at stake.
However, while optimism has built among the Arsenal supporters on the potential semifinal passage, there is the need to reflect on the possibility of a comeback by the serial European champions.
Given the antecedents of the club, Coach Ancelotti is not letting go of the possibility of the defending champions pulling out the obviously very hot chestnuts out of fire.
“We have to do everything we can to try and recover. The chances are pretty slim but we have to try, and we will try and do it any way we can,” Ancelotti said.
“Let’s see if we can pull it off. It feels as though there is no chance … but things always change in football. It is very tough, but stranger things have happened at the Bernabeu.”
Lucas Vázquez, Madrid right back, also showed optimism.
“It’s difficult, but if there´s any team in the world that can turn this situation round, it is us in front of our home fans at our ground,” he said.
“We will see a different game (next) Wednesday and if we all stick together, we´ll come through it.”
Goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois said Madrid’s home-field advantage could make the comeback possible.
“It´s tough at 3-0 but we´re strong at home and people need to have faith in this team because we´ll give it everything we have got to turn the result round,” he said.
“It´s possible, but we have to work hard and correct our mistakes.”
“Our opponents approached the game really well,” Courtois said further.
“In the first half, we broke their press well and had possession of the ball but what we wanted to do in the second half didn’t come off. That´s where we have to learn and improve.”
True to their words, Madrid have a history of turning the situation around but historically, not since 1975 have they overturned a three-goal first-leg deficit in Europe’s premier club competition.
On that occasion, they lost 4-1 to the then champions of England, Derby County, before winning 5-1 at the Bernabeu in the return. Since then, they hadn’t turned around a three-goal deficit.
They, it would be recalled, won their 14th Champions League title in 2022 after rallying their way through the knockout rounds. Their first comeback came against Paris Saint-Germain in the round of 16, when Los Blancos looked beaten after losing the first leg 1-0 and conceding early in the return game in the Spanish capital. The hosts eventually rallied with a second-half hat-trick by Karim Benzema.
In the quarterfinal, it was with another hat-trick by Benzema that Madrid won the first leg at Chelsea 3-1. But the team trailed 3-0 at the Bernabeu in the second leg and needed a late goal by Rodrygo in regulation and another by Benzema in extra time.
In the semifinal against Manchester City, Madrid lost 4-3 in England, and their deficit increased after conceding in the 73rd of the return game at home. But Rodrygo scored in the 90th and in stoppage time to force extra time, when Benzema converted a decisive penalty kick to put Madrid in the final, where it beat Liverpool.
However, Madrid will be without Eduardo Camavinga for the second leg because of a red card late in the game on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, Arsenal are also aware of the potential of their opponent on Wednesday and have promised not to let down the gauntlet.
Speaking at the presser in London, Mikel Arteta acknowledged the task ahead and promised that Arsenal won’t be caught off guard as they would prepare ahead, saying what happened in London was just the first half of the match.
“Now it’s half-time, and now we have to go to the Bernabeu and we’re going to have to elevate the level again to be the team that we want to be there, and to prepare the game to win it,” he said.
“It’s just half-time, and we’re going to have to be even better in Madrid to go through.”
Speaking similarly, Bukayo Saka who was found very hard to contain with by Madrid defenders, charged his colleagues to show same energy in the Spanish capital.
Taking to Instagram after the match, the forward wrote: “We asked and you gave us everything, thank you! Same energy in Madrid, job is not finished!”
Meanwhile, looking ahead in the other matches after the quarterfinal first leg, PSG have been remarkably impressive in 2025, and are no longer recognisable from when they visited the Emirates in October and lost 2-0.
Luis Enrique’s side have a 3-1 lead to hold onto at Villa Park on Tuesday, with Opta backing them as the third-favourites to triumph outright (21.9% chance).
Enrique has however said their plan is to go to the Villa Park and win again to send the message of their intention
“We have watched Aston Villa many times this season. They have played against Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal and they have always been an attacking team that plays from the back.
“We were good in the battles and I think we deserved this score-line. They were more defensive than we expected, but I think the technical quality of the players individually is clear to see, they’re all internationals with a lot of quality.
“Unfortunately when a team without creating chances takes the lead and they are suddenly winning the game, that can be a difficult moment for the team, but it has happened to us many times in important games. We keep dominating matches while trying to find what we need to overcome a team that is defending well and that struggle with a great coach.
“If we look at what happened on Tuesday (against Madrid), I think we can all agree the concept of favourites does not make much sense in this competition. It does not matter the result, or whether we have won. Our goal in Birmingham is clear – to win the game. That is the only target.”
On his own, Unai Emery, the Aston Villa manager, has maintained that Villa’s perspective remained unchanged and that the loss in the French capital was not the “worst” outcome.
“It has not changing a lot,” the Spanish coach stated.
“At 2-1 we were thinking for the next match playing to win, at 3-1 it’s still the same. We need to win the next match, not just by one goal, two.
“I’m very proud of the players and how we are developing and doing with our increasing in our demands and playing against PSG.
“We competed fantastically and we were close to getting a good result. At the end with this goal it’s more or less the same.”
For Villa to continue their Champions League journey, they will need to recreate the glory of their most famous night when they won the European Cup in 1982.
Yet Emery remains optimistic, adding: “I believe Villa Park is our home, hopefully we can be stronger, get the duels better than in France and have our moment more than what happened in the first leg.”
On the other side of the quarterfinal first leg, Barcelona, according to Opta, are on track to reach the final for the first time in a decade. They’re unbeaten in 2025, four points clear at the top of La Liga, and have all but booked their place in the last four. Borussia Dortmund felt their wrath on Wednesday, as they were beaten 4-0 in Catalonia.
Hansi Flick’s side are the second favourites to go all the way (25.9% chance), and they’re projected to bypass Serie A champions and leaders Inter in the next stage because Simone Inzaghi’s Nerazzurri beat Bayern Munich 2-1 away in the week, and have a 82.7% chance of progressing.
They’re a methodical force to be reckoned with, and are the one side that still seem to be going under the radar.
