•Tinubu and terrorists
At least 8,521 Nigerians sought refuge in Niger, Cameroon and Chad between December 2025 and May 2026 as a result of insecurity in the North-West and the North-East.
This is according to an analysis of data from the UNHCR Nigeria Forcibly Displaced Populations dashboard, obtained by our correspondent for the six-month period, reports Sunday PUNCH.
The data, produced jointly by the UN refugee agency, the National Commission for Refugees, Migrants and Internally Displaced Persons, the Nigeria Immigration Service and the International Organisation for Migration’s Displacement Tracking Matrix, shows a net increase of refugees across Niger, Cameroon and Chad between the period reviewed.
It brings the registered Nigerian refugee population in the three countries to 416,184.
Niger Republic alone, which shares a long and porous border with terror-hit North-West states of Sokoto, Zamfara and Katsina, recorded the sharpest surge, with its refugee count rising from 258,359 in December 2025 to 268,967 Nigerians in May 2026.
That is an increase of 10,608 persons in six months.
Within that period, Internally Displaced Persons in Sokoto State more than doubled from 88,562 to 181,526.
Cameroon currently hosts 125,192 Nigerian refugees, primarily in its Far North Region, and around the Minawao refugee camp, while Chad hosts 22,025, concentrated in the Lac Province around Baga Sola and Ngala.
According to the UNHCR Nigerian Refugees and Repatriation Overview, which provides a companion analysis to the displacement dashboard, most of the displaced populations in all three countries originate primarily from Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states, the northeastern states that have served as Boko Haram and ISWAP’s principal theatres of operations since 2009.
In the Niger Republic, the majority are settled in the Diffa region near the Nigerian border, scattered across an estimated 135 makeshift encampments along 200 kilometres of Route National 1, the highway that runs parallel to the Komadougou River and the Nigerian border.
Key border towns receiving Nigerian refugees include Kuluk, Gashua, Machina and Malkotan.
The data showed that the recent surge in exodus to Niger coincides with rising insecurity in Sokoto and Zamfara.
In the first half of 2025, at least 2,266 people were killed by insurgents or bandits, surpassing the total number of casualties for all of 2024.
A broader count covering two years of President Bola Tinubu’s administration showed that at least 10,217 people were killed in attacks by armed groups in Benue, Edo, Katsina, Kebbi, Plateau, Sokoto and Zamfara states.
In 2025, Lakurawa, a new armed group with cross-border operations into Niger and Mali, further compounded the insecurity challenge in the North-West and North-Central.
In the Diffa region, which has been under a state of emergency since 2015, ISWAP continues to operate with relative freedom.
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network projected Crisis (based on the Integrated Food Security scale) food insecurity outcomes for Diffa through May 2026, driven directly by ongoing armed conflict.
Among the displaced populations sheltering in the region, 63 per cent have insufficient access to food, and 43 per cent lack adequate access to water.
The UNHCR’s repatriation overview also revealed that at least 37,911 Nigerians have returned home from all three countries since 2019.
In 2025 alone, 26,775 returned, including more than 17,000 bilaterally repatriated from Niger by the Federal Government between April and November 2025, and over 7,000 from Chad following the finalisation of a tripartite agreement in 2025.
In 2026, 3,510 have returned by April, all to Borno State.
However, the report showed that voluntary return remains slow.
In December 2025, Borno State Governor, Babagana Zulum, visited the Minawao camp and declared a cash pledge of N500,000 per returning household.
So far, only 3,122 of more than 50,000 refugees at the camp have agreed to return.
A separate UNHCR survey found that only 32 per cent, about 23,000, of all surveyed refugees across the three countries expressed intention to return.
As of this report, there is no formal tripartite repatriation framework for the Republic of Niger, which hosts the largest concentration of Nigerian refugees.
According to the February 2026 dashboard, a draft agreement between Nigeria, Niger, and UNHCR is pending review.
The federal government, through the North-West Governors’ Forum and with technical support from the United Nations Development Programme, officially launched State-Level Adoption of the National Policy on IDPs and corresponding State Action Plans on Durable Solutions for Katsina and Zamfara on February 16, 2026.
The IOM also expanded its humanitarian programme beyond the Northeast to include Northwest states, specifically Katsina and Zamfara, to address underserved areas.
In his third-anniversary address to Nigerians on May 29, Tinubu, who acknowledged that insecurity challenges persisted, insisted that progress was being made across the country.
He said, “Our Armed Forces and security agencies have intensified operations against terrorists, bandits, kidnappers, oil thieves, and criminal networks. While challenges remain, many communities and highways are becoming safer and more economically active.”
At the time of filing this report, the Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, had not responded to calls and a text message sent to his mobile line.
