Crude oil output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dropped 7.3 million barrels per day in March compared with the previous month, a Reuters survey showed yesterday.
The development illustrates the impact of forced export cuts because of the closure of the Strait.
Before the war, the group’s production rose by 164,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February 2026 to an average of roughly 28.63 million bpd, driven by an 80,000 bpd increase in output from Venezuela. The total crude oil production averaged approximately 42.72 million bpd in February 2026.
Oil tumbled more than 3% on today, reversing earlier gains as persistent Middle East volatility unnerved markets even amid reports the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran could be winding down.
The front-month Brent contract for June fell $3.33, or 3.2%, to $100.64 per barrel at 0641 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for May slipped $3.34, or 3.3%, to $98.04 per barrel.
Prices rose earlier on today but turned lower as uncertainty over the Middle East conflict prompted investors to lock in gains.
Brent futures for June delivery settled down more than $3 yesterday following unconfirmed media reports that Iran’s president was ready to end the war.
President Donald Trump told reporters yesterday that the U.S. could end the military campaign within two to three weeks and that Iran does not have to make a deal to end the conflict, his clearest declaration yet that he wants to wind down the month-long war.
Still, even if the conflict ends, infrastructure damage is likely to keep supplies tight, analysts say.
Oil prices will depend on how quickly supply chains normalise afterwards, Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, told our correspondent.
“Even if it starts to de-escalate, the flow of tankers won’t resume right away … shipping costs and insurance, tanker movement will take time to return to normal,” Sachdeva said, adding that the actual damage to oil infrastructure could only be assessed afterwards.
The development followed Trump’s indication that he could end the war before reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a key route through which 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade flows, according to a Wall Street Journal report.
Nigeria has had to divert most of its crude oil cargoes to Asia in search of new markets, as Iran shuts the Strait.
The Iran war has forced the shutdown of at least 10 million barrels per day of oil from the Middle East due to Iran’s effective closure of the Strait, and attacks on Iranian and other Middle East Gulf nations’ energy infrastructure. That production volume represents at least 10% of daily global oil consumption.
Asia has been most affected by oil and gas disruptions, as it is the world’s largest oil-importing continent and relies on supplies from the Middle East.
