•Fuel pump
Private petroleum depots across Lagos and other key fuel trading hubs have raised the ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) to as high as N800 per litre.
Data obtained from petroleumprice.ng yesterday showed that the average cost of petrol at private depots increased sharply within 48 hours, tightening margins for marketers and raising fresh concerns over an imminent spike in retail pump prices nationwide, reports Sunday PUNCH.
In Lagos, Dangote depot, which consistently offers the lowest petrol price sold PMS at N703 per litre on Friday, up from N702.50 on Wednesday, December 31, 2025.
While the increase at Dangote was marginal, other private depots recorded steeper adjustments.
Eterna and Integrated depots raised petrol prices to N800 per litre on Friday, compared with N726 per litre at Shellplux and AIPEC earlier in the week, indicating a jump of N74 per litre within two days.
Similarly, Aiteo and Lister depots sold petrol at N780 per litre, up from N750–N760 band recorded on Wednesday.
The impact was more pronounced in Warri, one of the country’s key petroleum logistics hubs.
While Matrix Energy and other major depots sold petrol at N800 per litre on Wednesday, prices climbed to as high as N805 per litre by Friday, according to the report.
The Warri market reacted faster due to tighter supply lines and higher transportation costs, especially as marketers reposition volumes ahead of anticipated scarcity.
Last December, Dangote Petroleum Refinery reduced its petrol gantry price, slashing the ex-depot rate from N828 to N699 per litre.
The new price took effect on December 11, 2025, marking the 20th petrol price adjustment announced by the refinery this year.
Market operators linked the price surge to the shutdown of the petrol unit at the Dangote Refinery, which had recently become a major domestic supplier of PMS, helping to moderate prices following the removal of fuel subsidies.
Commenting, the Chief Executive Officer of petroleumprice.ng, Jeremiah Olatide, said the latest increase was a calculated response by importers seeking to recover losses recorded in December.
He explained that importers were hit hard by the aggressive price slash by the Dangote Refinery, which sold petrol at about N699 per litre, forcing many private players to sell below their landing costs.
“This price uptick is a deliberate move by importers to recoup losses from the massive price slash by the Dangote Refinery in December,” Olatide said.
He added that marketers were already factoring in potential supply tightness in January due to the ongoing upgrade at the Dangote Refinery, a development they believe could limit domestic supply temporarily.
“Importers are postulating that there may be supply constraints in January because of the refinery’s plant upgrade, and they see this as an opportunity to make up for December losses,” he noted.
According to him, some depot operators are deliberately holding back volumes in storage, waiting to sell at prices above their landing costs once any supply disruption emerges.
“They are keeping products in tank, hoping to sell above their landing cost as soon as there is a supply glitch,” Olatide said.
However, he cautioned that the strategy may not hold for long, noting that the Dangote Refinery could respond aggressively once supply normalises.
“We will see how the new pricing plays out, but there will likely be a fightback from the refinery,” he added.
With Dangote’s supply temporarily curtailed, private depot owners have begun repricing available stock, citing replacement costs, foreign exchange volatility and uncertainty around import schedules.
The petroleumprice.ng report also noted that Brent crude closed at $60.20 per barrel on Friday, while the naira continued to weaken at the parallel market, trading at N1,495/$, compared with N1,475/$ on Wednesday, further adding pressure to fuel pricing.
Depot price movements typically precede changes at filling stations, and industry watchers warn that the current trend could push retail petrol prices beyond N700 per litre in several cities if sustained.
Petrol marketers said margins had been compressed by logistics costs, financing challenges and volatile exchange rates, making depot price increases difficult to absorb without adjusting pump prices.
Since the full deregulation of the downstream petroleum sector, petrol prices in Nigeria have been determined by market forces, including crude prices, exchange rates, logistics and supply availability.
The Dangote Refinery, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, had raised expectations of price stability through local refining. However, its temporary petrol unit shutdown has exposed the fragility of supply dynamics, especially as imports remain costly.
