•Peter Obi and Tinubu
The latest Oxford Metro Analytics public pulse reveals a sharply divided regional picture ahead of the 2027 presidential election, with Peter Obi commanding the South East and South South while President Bola Tinubu leads across key northern zones and the South West.
The figures show Obi with 62.6 per cent of public pulse support in the South East, giving him a commanding advantage in the region, reports Daily Independent.
His position is particularly striking when compared with the other leading candidates and reinforces the strength of his support base in the zone.
Obi also leads in the South South with 53.7 per cent, placing him substantially ahead of Tinubu in the region. The figures indicate that the former Anambra governor’s strongest regional support extends beyond his immediate geopolitical base into the neighbouring South South.
Tinubu, meanwhile, retains a strong position in the South West and northern Nigeria. The president records 47.7 per cent in the North West, against Atiku’s 32.9 per cent, while his South West showing remains stronger than that of Obi.
The North Central presents a much closer contest. Tinubu records 36.3 per cent, while Obi has 34.4 per cent, suggesting that the zone is considerably more competitive than the North West or South East.
Atiku dominates the North East with 50.4 per cent, giving the former vice president the strongest regional showing among the three major contenders in any of the northern zones. Obi follows with 28.4 per cent, meaning Atiku’s support in the region is substantially higher than that of his closest rival.
The regional numbers consequently produce a picture that is significantly different from the national leaderboard. Nationally, Tinubu and Obi are separated by just 13 votes, with Tinubu on 21,619 and Obi on 21,606. But geographically, the two candidates draw their support from very different parts of the country.
The figures also show why regional sentiment could become central to the 2027 political conversation.
Tinubu’s strength in the South West and North West gives him important geographical advantages, while Obi’s commanding numbers in the South East and South South give him a formidable regional bloc. Atiku’s dominance in the North East adds a third significant centre of support.
The pattern could also make the North Central especially important. With Tinubu and Obi separated by less than two percentage points among participants in the zone, any substantial shift there could potentially alter the balance of the national public pulse.
Oxford Metro’s participation model is also important when interpreting the figures. The platform says it tracks responses from across the six geopolitical zones and the FCT, with participants selecting their state before casting their vote. It says state information is used to categorise responses into geopolitical zones.
The regional figures should nevertheless not be treated as conventional opinion polling. Oxford Metro explicitly describes the exercise as an open public participation vote and says it is not a scientific field poll, official election result or INEC election.
The figures therefore provide a snapshot of sentiment among participants on the platform rather than a statistically representative projection of how Nigerians will vote in 2027.
